US future intelligence

Nothing like getting your retaliation in first…   Entertaining US lefty commentator Tom Engelhardt (who I recall meeting at Pantheon books way back in the ’80s) has an entertaining pre-emptive demolition of the US National Intelligence Council’s next Global Trends assessment, apparently due for release in December.

He reviews what was in previous editions, and concludes that, well, they lack foresight. Or, as he puts it:

“What the Global Trends documents represent, then, is not a deep dive into the mysteries of the future, but a series of belly flops by an unbearably obese IC into a barely grasped present”.

The problem seems to be that they fail to predict a decline of American hegemony because their potential audiences – politicians, strategists, other agencies, presidential candidates – cannot entertain such an idea, so would pay no heed to a forecast which took it seriously.

His solution – try science fiction instead, and be less surprised. Hmm.

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Explore posts in the same categories: futures past, futures studies, military

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